科研之友
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摘要
This paper presents a coupled economic ecological model that integrates a catchment model with a marine model and incorporates economic data to analyse the long-term economic and ecological consequences of nutrient abatement in the Baltic Sea. The spatially explicit model describes dynamics of soil phosphorus in arable land, developments of nutrient concentrations and phytoplankton biomass in the sea basins, and inter-annual variation in nutrient loads and biophysical processes. The performance of the model is demonstrated by computing the least-cost solution to reach the good environmental state of the sea as implied by the Baltic Sea Action Plan within a time span of 40 years. The total cost of achieving this target is 1487 MC annually. Spatially optimal allocation of load reductions differs from the load reduction targets of the Baltic Sea Action Plan, and focuses more on the control of phosphorus loads.
- 出版日期2014-5
