Weighted-indexed semi-Markov models for modeling financial returns

作者:D' Amico Guglielmo; Petroni Filippo
来源:Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment , 2012, P07015.
DOI:10.1088/1742-5468/2012/07/P07015

摘要

In this paper we propose a new stochastic model based on a generalization of semi-Markov chains for studying the high frequency price dynamics of traded stocks. We assume that the financial returns are described by a weighted-indexed semi-Markov chain model. We show, through Monte Carlo simulations, that the model is able to reproduce important stylized facts of financial time series such as the first-passage-time distributions and the persistence of volatility. The model is applied to data from the Italian and German stock markets from 1 January 2007 until the end of December 2010.

  • 出版日期2012-7