科研之友
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摘要
A discrete-time deterministic measles model with periodic transmission rate is formulated and studied. The basic reproduction number R-0 is defined and used as the threshold parameter in determining the dynamics of the model. It is shown that the disease will die out if R-0 < 1, and the disease will persist in the population if R-0 > 1. Parameters in the model are estimated on the basis of demographic and epidemiological data. Numerical simulations are presented to describe the seasonal fluctuation of measles infection in China.
- 出版日期2015-8
- 单位西安电子科技大学
