A CORRELATION SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF NON-LIFE UNDERWRITING RISK IN SOLVENCY CAPITAL REQUIREMENT ESTIMATION

作者：Bermudez Lluis^*; Ferri Antoni; Guillen Montserrat

来源：ASTIN Bulletin, 2013, 43(1): 21-37.

DOI：10.1017/asb.2012.1

• Solvency II
• solvency capital requirement
• standard model
• internal model
• Monte Carlo simulation
• copulas

This paper analyses the impact of using different correlation assumptions between lines of business when estimating the risk-based capital reserve, the solvency capital requirement (SCR), under Solvency II regulations. A case study is presented and the SCR is calculated according to the standard model approach. Alternatively, the requirement is then calculated using an internal model based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the net underwriting result at a one-year horizon, with copulas being used tomodel the dependence between lines of business. To address the impact of these model assumptions on the SCR, we conduct a sensitivity analysis. We examine changes in the correlation matrix between lines of business and address the choice of copulas. Drawing on aggregate historical data from the Spanish non-life insurance market between 2000 and 2009, we conclude that modifications of the correlation and dependence assumptions have a significant impact on SCR estimation.

• 出版日期2013-1