A semi-probabilistic procedure for developing societal risk function

作者：Tsang Hing Ho^*; Daniell James E; Wenzel Friedemann; Werner Amelie C

来源：Natural Hazards, 2018, 92(2): 943-969.

DOI：10.1007/s11069-018-3233-z

• Societal risk
• F-N curve
• Recurrence relationship
• Fatality
• Economic loss
• Earthquake

Seismic risk is typically quantified probabilistically for a single asset or evaluated through regional loss assessment for selected earthquake events. Ideally, a recurrence relationship for a loss quantity, economic loss or casualty, can be obtained for risk-informed decision-making. This can be achieved by a fully stochastic approach, for which a large amount of input information is required, whilst there is usually a lack of transparency that might hinder repeatability of the outputs. Hence, the objective of this paper is to introduce a simple and unambiguous procedure for developing parametric societal risk function based on rigorous loss modelling of response-specific probabilistic scenarios. This is then illustrated for the Greater Melbourne Region with fatality as the loss quantity. The proposed semi-probabilistic procedure can be extended to other loss quantities, as well as evaluating societal risk of other natural hazards or multiple hazards.

• 出版日期2018-6