Day-ahead resource forecasting for concentrated solar power integration

作者：Nonnenmacher Lukas; Kaur Amanpreet; Coimbra Carlos F M^*

来源：Renewable Energy, 2016, 86: 866-876.

DOI：10.1016/j.renene.2015.08.068

• CSP Integration
• Day-ahead forecasting
• NWP based DNI forecasting
• Solar variability
• Solar uncertainty

In this work, we validate and enhance previously proposed singe-input direct normal irradiance (DNI) models based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) for intra-week forecasts with over 200,000 hours of ground measurements for 8 locations. Short latency re-forecasting methods to enhance the deterministic forecast accuracies are presented and discussed. The basic forecast is applied to 15 additional locations in North America with satellite-derived DNI data. The basic model outperforms the persistence model at all 23 locations with a skill between 12.4% and 38.2%. The RMSE of the basic forecast is in the range of 204.9 W m(-2) to 309.9 W m(-2). The implementation of stochastic learning re-forecasting methods yields further reduction in error from 204.9 W m(-2) to 176.5 W m(-2). To a great extent, the errors are caused by inaccuracies in the NWP cloud prediction. Improved assessment of atmospheric turbidity has limited impact on reducing forecast errors. Our results suggest that NWP-based DNI forecasts are very capable of reducing power and net-load uncertainty introduced by concentrated solar power plants at all locations in North America. Operating reserves to balance uncertainty in day-ahead schedules can be reduced on average by an estimated 28.6% through the application of the basic forecast.

• 出版日期2016-2