A spatio-temporal Poisson hurdle point process to model wildfires

作者：Serra Laura^*; Saez Marc; Juan Pablo; Varga Diego; Mateu Jorge

来源：Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2014, 28(7): 1671-1684.

DOI：10.1007/s00477-013-0823-x

• Hurdle model
• INLA
• Spatio-temporal point processes
• SPDE
• Wildfire

Wildfires have been studied in many ways, for instance as a spatial point pattern or through modeling the size of fires or the relative risk of big fires. Lately a large variety of complex statistical models can be fitted routinely to complex data sets, in particular wildfires, as a result of widely accessible high-level statistical software, such as R. The objective in this paper is to model the occurrence of big wildfires (greater than a given extension of hectares) using an adapted two-part econometric model, specifically a hurdle model. The methodology used in this paper is useful to determine those factors that help any fire to become a big wildfire. Our proposal and methodology can be routinely used to contribute to the management of big wildfires.

• 出版日期2014-10