A simple short range model for the prediction of harmful algal events in the bays of southwestern Ireland

作者：Raine Robin^*; McDermott Georgina; Silke Joe; Lyons Kieran; Nolan Glenn; Cusack Caroline

来源：Journal of Marine Systems, 2010, 83(3-4): 150-157.

DOI：10.1016/j.jmarsys.2010.05.001

• Harmful Algal Blooms
• Prediction
• Dinophysis
• Ireland

A simple model is described which predicts harmful algal events in the bays of southwestern Ireland Fundamental to the model is the physical forcing of circulation in these bays in summer The predominant hydrographic feature at this time is a wind driven two-layer oscillatory flow acting in a thermally stratified water column This mechanism exchanges substantial proportions of the bays volumes and harmful algal events arise with the associated transport of harmful populations into them The model is therefore based on the criterion that wind-driven water exchanges result in exchanges of phytoplankton which if the time of year is correct result in toxic events Utilising Bantry Bay as an example hindcasting showed that the model has a high degree of success using a wind index based on the sequence of winds that results in water exchange The model was implemented by estimating indices from the five-day weather forecast and mailed in 2005 Results were published on the web in real time during which a predicted water exchange event in mid Ju

• 出版日期2010-11