摘要

In this study, an inexact optimisation model is developed for regional power system management under uncertainty, where interval-parameter programming and two stage-stochastic programming were integrated in a framework for dealing with the long-term energy systems planning. The developed method can deal with multiple forms of uncertainties and dynamics related to capacity expansions within energy management systems. The proposed model was applied to a case study of power system management and air pollutants mitigation in Heilongjiang Province, China. Six scenarios are considered based on different emissions reduction and mode of power structure adjustments. The results show that in order to keep a sustainable development and safe power/energy supply, a diversified power structure (primarily on coal power generation, supplemented by renewable energy generation) would be established in the region. In addition, the pollutants-emission control is more effective than power structure adjustment for improving rationality of the electricity economic budget in Heilongjiang Province. The model is helpful for supporting adjustment of allocation patterns of regional energy resources, formulating energy structure and energy consumption of local policies.