Using mean first passage times to quantify equilibrium resilience in perturbed intraguild predation systems

作者：Drury Kevin L S^*; Lodge David M

来源：Theoretical Ecology, 2009, 2(1): 41-51.

DOI：10.1007/s12080-008-0027-z

• Resilience
• Bistable
• Alternate stable states
• Hysteresis
• Intraguild predation
• Mean first passage time
• Rusty crayfish
• Smallmouth bass
• Shot noise process
• Regime shift

Regime shift inducibility depends on equilibrium resilience, which depends on species interactions. When species interactions include intraguild predation (IGP), integrated pest management may induce regime shifts because enhancing the abundance of intraguild predators simultaneously increases competition with, and predation on, invasive prey. To explore the dynamical consequences of such manipulations, we use a bistable, deterministic IGP model with stochastic removals that perturb invader density from the high-density equilibrium. We quantify the combined effects of IGP and such perturbations in terms of mean first passage times (MFPTs) to target invader densities such as thresholds between regimes. Analytical MFPTs compare favorably with those generated by Monte Carlo numerical solutions of the stochastically perturbed IGP model. MFPTs can therefore usefully quantify equilibrium resilience in terms of perturbation schedules.

• 出版日期2009-3