Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures

作者：Steinman, Byron A.^*; Mann, Michael E.; Miller, Sonya K.

来源：Science, 2015, 347(6225): 988-991.

DOI：10.1126/science.1257856

• SURFACE-TEMPERATURE
• INTERDECADAL CHANGES
• CLIMATE
• VARIABILITY
• CIRCULATION
• CMIP5
• HIATUS
• MODES

The recent slowdown in global warming has brought into question the reliability of climate model projections of future temperature change and has led to a vigorous debate over whether this slowdown is the result of naturally occurring, internal variability or forcing external to Earth's climate system. To address these issues, we applied a semi-empirical approach that combines climate observations and model simulations to estimate Atlantic-and Pacific-based internal multidecadal variability (termed "AMO" and "PMO," respectively). Using this method, the AMO and PMO are found to explain a large proportion of internal variability in Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures. Competition between a modest positive peak in the AMO and a substantially negative-trending PMO are seen to produce a slowdown or "false pause" in warming of the past decade.

• 出版日期2015-2-27