Analysis of wind speed probability distribution and wind turbine generator capacity factor

作者：Mu Yu Qiang^*; Wang Xiu Li; Bie Zhao Hong; Xu Lin; Zhu Wei Ping

来源：Power System Protection and Control, 2009, 37(1): 65-70.

• Capacity factor
• Capacity factors
• Distribution
• Extreme wind speed
• Fitting
• Gumbel distribution
• Mean wind speed
• Shape parameters
• Strong winds
• Weibull
• Weibull approach
• Wind power density
• Wind speed
• Wind speed data
• Wind turbine generators

Three functions are used for fitting the 10 mins mean wind speed probability distribution. Weibull distribution gives a better result. The scale and shape parameters of Weibull distribution are estimated using three methods. The suitability of the estimated methods is judged from the ability to describe the experimental wind power density distribution. Also the paper proposes a method to calculate the wind power density distribution. The Gumbel distribution is adopted in this study to fit the extreme wind speed data. It is found from the result that the Gumbel distribution is suitable. The wind speed data in the chronological (time-series) format and probabilistic (Weibull) format are used to estimate the monthly capacity factor of Growian-3MW turbine. It is shown that the strong wind period leads to significantly higher capacity factors than the weak wind period. Capacity factor of fifteen turbines at one site is done using the Weibull approach. The result will enable the wind power developer to make a judicious choice from kinds of wind turbine generators.

• 出版日期2009