科研之友
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摘要
Disruptions in the production of commodities and services resulting from disasters influence the vital functions of infrastructure and economic sectors within a region. The interdependencies inherent among these sectors trigger the faster propagation of disaster consequences that are often associated with a wider range of inoperability and amplified losses. This article evaluates the impact of inventory-enhanced policies for disrupted interdependent sectors to improve the disaster preparedness capability of dynamic inoperability input-output models (DIIM). In this article, we develop the dynamic cross-prioritization plot (DCPP)a prioritization methodology capable of identifying and dynamically updating the critical sectors based on preference assignments to different objectives. The DCPP integrates the risk assessment metrics (e.g., economic loss and inoperability), which are independently analyzed in the DIIM. We develop a computer-based DCPP tool to determine the priority for inventory enhancement with user preference and resource availability as new dimensions. A baseline inventory case for the state of Virginia revealed a high concentration of (i) manufacturing sectors under the inoperability objective and (ii) service sectors under the economic loss objective. Simulation of enhanced inventory policies for selected critical manufacturing sectors has reduced the recovery period by approximately four days and the expected total economic loss by $33 million. Although the article focuses on enhancing inventory levels in manufacturing sectors, complementary analysis is recommended to manage the resilience of the service sectors. The flexibility of the proposed DCPP as a decision support tool can also be extended to accommodate analysis in other regions and disaster scenarios.
- 出版日期2012-10
