Appraisal of artificial neural network for forecasting of economic parameters

作者：Kordanuli Bojana; Barjaktarovic Lidija; Jeremic Ljiljana; Alizamir Meysam^*

来源：Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications , 2017, 465: 515-519.

DOI：10.1016/j.physa.2016.08.062

• GDP
• HHI
• Forecasting
• Artificial neural network

The main aim of this research is to develop and apply artificial neural network (ANN) with extreme learning machine (ELM) and back propagation (BP) to forecast gross domestic product (GDP) and Hirschman-Herfindahl Index (HHI). GDP could be developed based on combination of different factors. In this investigation GDP forecasting based on the agriculture and industry added value in gross domestic product (GDP) was analysed separately. Other inputs are final consumption expenditure of general government, gross fixed capital formation (investments) and fertility rate. The relation between product market competition and corporate investment is contentious. On one hand, the relation can be positive, but on the other hand, the relation can be negative. Several methods have been proposed to monitor market power for the purpose of developing procedures to mitigate or eliminate the effects. The most widely used methods are based on indices such as the Hirschman-Herfindahl Index (HHI). The reliability of the ANN models were accessed based on simulation results and using several statistical indicators. Based upon simulation results, it was presented that ELM shows better performances than BP learning algorithm in applications of GDP and HHI forecasting.

• 出版日期2017-1-1