科研之友
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摘要
The massive devastation of the Indian Ocean mega tsunami in 2004, clearly calls for an efficient early warning system for the Indian Ocean countries. The 'Regional Watch Provider' system currently planned makes some countries entirely dependent on the watch providers. We discuss a feasible and reliable tsunami detection mechanism for Sri Lanka that would give it some independent information for decision making purposes. It contemplates Sri Lanka deploying its own additional detection tools. A stand-alone tide gauge system, a buoy system and a combined gauge and buoy system are tested with the status quo or 'do nothing' alternative. A decision analysis exercise investigates the probability of tsunamis, probability of failures of each detection system, the probability of successful completion of an evacuation and the probability of false warnings which have their own costs. This paper concludes with the derived recommendations for a preferred tsunami detection system for Sri Lanka.
- 出版日期2011
