科研之友
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摘要
The Brazilian production of major food commodities increased fivefold between 1961 and 2008. In the same time, the area cropped with sugar cane increased with high growth rates, currently covering 3% of the area dedicated to agricultural production in Brazil. In order to assess a possible competition between biofuel and food production, the development of agricultural productivity and area expansion in the past was analysed. Furthermore, the future situation of land resources for agricultural production was illustrated. The findings of this study indicated that area resources of more than 20 million hectare would be available for agricultural production in the upcoming years. A current constraint of food production throughout land dedicated to biofuels was not found. Three scenarios were investigated, simulating possibilities of future changes in Brazilian agriculture. The results demonstrated that primary food production could be enhanced by 1.5 times while bioethanol production was enhanced simultaneously by 1.8 times over the years 2007/2008 and 2020. The generated bioethanol volumes would meet 38% of the total energy demand in Brazilian transport sector, applied to the year 2007. The second scenario evaluated an agricultural development with a higher focus on biofuels. It was projected that the production of bioethanol could be increased by 3.0 times to 76.7 million m(3) of bioethanol, while increasing at the same time primary food production with the factor 1.4 aligned to the projected population growth. This bioethanol volume represents 67% of the total energy demand in Brazilian transport sector in the year 2007. A third scenario demonstrated that food production could be increased even with no area expansion higher than the projected population growth, due to a continued increase of productivity. At the same time bioethanol production would rise to 32 million m(3) without occupying more area.
- 出版日期2011-3
