Subset Simulation of a reliability model for radioactive waste repository performance assessment

作者：Cadini F^*; Avram D; Pedroni N; Zio E

来源：Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2012, 100: 75-83.

DOI：10.1016/j.ress.2011.12.012

• Radioactive waste repository
• Performance assessment
• Reliability model
• Subset Simulation
• Markov Chain Monte Carlo

In this paper, we show an original application of the Subset Simulation (SS) technique on a model for the performance assessment of a near surface radioactive waste repository. The logic of the protective barriers of the repository is represented by a reliability model. The SS approach is founded on the idea that a small failure probability can be expressed as a product of larger conditional probabilities of some intermediate events; with a proper choice of the conditional events, the conditional probabilities can be sufficiently large to allow accurate estimation with a small number of samples. In the application, the method allows improving the efficiency of the random sampling for estimating the repository containment failure probability. Moreover, the peculiar set-partitioning scheme of the SS method is exploited for performing the analysis of the sensitivity of the failure probability estimate to the uncertain model parameters.

• 出版日期2012-4