Assessment of the capacity credit of wind power in Mexico

作者：Pablo Yanez Juan; Kunith Alexander; Chavez Arroyo Roberto; Romo Perea Alejandro; Probst Oliver^*

来源：Renewable Energy, 2014, 72: 62-78.

DOI：10.1016/j.renene.2014.06.038

• Capacity credit
• Wind power
• Loss of load expectation
• Geographic information systems
• North American regional reanalysis
• Regional diversification

A comprehensive assessment of the capacity credit of potential wind power developments in Mexico has been conducted for the first time. The analysis is based on an 80 m wind speed map generated from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data base and a set of restrictions, including proximity to transmission lines and major roads. Potential wind farm sites complying with all restrictions were populated with wind farms according to different scenarios; consecutive deployment of wind power from 1% to 15% system penetration was considered in all cases. In a set of one-region scenarios the evolution of the capacity credit was studied for different levels of intra-regional diversification. Near-generic decay according to a power law was observed at high penetration levels, whereas a notorious benefit was obtained from diversification at low and intermediate wind power penetration. In order to assess the potential benefits of inter-regional diversification, an optimization procedure was conducted. A significant improvement of the capacity credit decay curve was obtained for all levels of penetration. Optimal sets are characterized by a balanced utilization among regions with a relative insensitivity with respect to the exact composition of the wind farm set. The results are believed to be useful for the expansion planning of the Mexican electric grid.

• 出版日期2014-12