A nomogram to predict prognosis after surgery in early stage non-small cell lung cancer in elderly patients

作者：Sun, Fenghao; Ma, Ke; Yang, Xiaodong; Li, Ming; Shi, Yu; Zhan, Cheng^*; Jiang, Wei^*; Wang, Qun

来源：International Journal of Surgery, 2017, 42: 11-16.

DOI：10.1016/j.ijsu.2017.04.024

• NSCLC
• Elderly
• Early
• Risk factors
• Nomogram

Background: The aim of this study was to identify risk factors affecting overall survival (OS) of elderly patients with early stage NSCLC, and develop a nomogram for prognostic prediction of these patients using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. @@@ Methods: Data from the SEER database of patients aged >= 65 years with early (T1N0M0) NSCLC diagnosed between 2004 and 2013 were examined. The prognostic effect of each variable on survival was evaluated using the Kaplane-Meier method and the Cox proportional hazards regression model. A nomogram was formulated to predict the 3- and 5-year OS rates of elderly patients with early stage NSCLC. @@@ Results: Finally, a total of 20,782 patients were included in this research. Cox regression analysis showed that sex, age, pathological type, diameter, differentiation, and surgery type were independent risk factors. A nomogram was formulated based on the results of multivariate analysis (all p < 0.001) and validated using an internal bootstrap resampling approach, which showed that the nomogram exhibited a sufficient level of discrimination according to the C-index (0.638, 95% CI = 0.629-0.647). @@@ Conclusions: The nomogram developed in this study demonstrated its discrimination capability to predict the 3- and 5-year OS rates of elderly patients with early stage NSCLC based on individual characteristics.

• 出版日期2017-6
• 单位复旦大学