Long term energy demand projection and potential for energy savings of Croatian tourism-catering trade sector

作者：Irsag Bojan; Puksec Tomislav^*; Duic Neven

来源：Energy, 2012, 48(1): 398-405.

DOI：10.1016/j.energy.2012.06.069

• Energy demand
• Forecast
• Tourism
• Energy efficiency
• Bottom-up modelling

Today, tourism represents one of the backbones of Croatian economy and one of the main factors of its growth. Combined with catering trade sector, tourism represents a significant energy consumer that has the tendencies of future growth. Since services sector, which tourism-catering trade sector is a part of, is not yet well described regarding future energy balances it would be very interesting to see how could possible future growth in tourism influence energy consumption of the services sector in Croatia. Through this paper long term energy demand projections of tourism-catering trade sector were studied with special emphasis on future growth of tourism in Croatia as well as different mechanisms that might lead to certain energy savings. Bottom-up approach was chosen as the most suitable one since it allows better quantification of different measures, technological or legal, that would influence future energy demand. Downside of this approach is extensive input data that is required to analyse and model future energy demand which is roughly divided into heating/cooling section and all other consumption. Results show that additional energy savings in the tourism-catering trade sector are possible if careful and rational demand side planning is in place.

• 出版日期2012-12