Modeling malaria and typhoid fever co-infection dynamics

作者：Mutua Jones M; Wang Feng Bin; Vaidya Naveen K^*

来源：Mathematical Biosciences, 2015, 264: 128-144.

DOI：10.1016/j.mbs.2015.03.014

• Co-infection
• Malaria
• Typhoid
• False diagnosis
• Mathematical analysis
• Reproduction numbers

Malaria and typhoid are among the most endemic diseases, and thus, of major public health concerns in tropical developing countries. In addition to true co-infection of malaria and typhoid, false diagnoses due to similar signs and symptoms and false positive results in testing methods, leading to improper controls, are the major challenges on managing these diseases. In this study, we develop novel mathematical models describing the co-infection dynamics of malaria and typhoid. Through mathematical analyses of our models, we identify distinct features of typhoid and malaria infection dynamics as well as relationships associated to their co-infection. The global dynamics of typhoid can be determined by a single threshold (the typhoid basic reproduction number, R-0(T)) while two thresholds (the malaria basic reproduction number, R-0(M), and the extinction index, R-0(MM)) are needed to determine the global dynamics of malaria. We demonstrate that by using efficient simultaneous prevention programs, the co-infection basic reproduction number, R-0, can be brought down to below one, thereby eradicating the diseases. Using our model, we present illustrative numerical results with a case study in the Eastern Province of Kenya to quantify the possible false diagnosis resulting from this co-infection. In Kenya, despite having higher prevalence of typhoid, malaria is more problematic in terms of new infections and disease deaths. We find that false diagnosis-with higher possible cases for typhoid than malaria-cause significant devastating impacts on Kenyan societies. Our results demonstrate that both diseases need to be simultaneously managed for successful control of co-epidemics.

• 出版日期2015-6
• 单位长春大学