Accident risk probability for "Three Highs" gas fields based on fault tree analysis

作者：Xu Jin Hua^*; Sun De Qiang; Fan Ying; Ren Qing Juan

来源：Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 2012, 32(4): 877-884.

• Accident probability
• Accident rate
• Accident risks
• Bayesian methods
• Bayesian updating
• Fault tree method
• Gas fields
• Gas well drilling
• High pressure
• High sulfur contents
• High yield
• Monte Carlo Simulation
• Quantitative risk assessment
• Sample data
• Statistic data

The accident probability calculation of the gas fields with high sulfur content, high pressure, and high yield (3-highs) has been the focal and difficult point in risk assessment for gas well drilling accidents in China and abroad. In order to calculate the accident rate reasonably, the paper used the fault tree method and Bayesian updating to research the accident probability of the gas well drilling with 3-highs. Firstly, the paper described the mechanism of the accidents using fault tree analysis (FTA), then made use of Bayesian method to update existing statistic data for reducing uncertainty, and got the probability distributions of the top event and related incidents with Monte Carlo simulation finally. Empirical results show that the method could effectively reduce the uncertainty arisen from limited sample data and judge difference from experts, and could provide reference for quantitative risk assessment of the gas well drilling with 3-highs.

• 出版日期2012
• 单位中国科学技术大学