An optimal combinational model for short-term load forecasting based on induced ordered weighted averaging operator

作者：Li, Jinghua^*; Wei, Hua

来源：Power System Technology, 2011, 35(10): 177-182.

• Combinational methods
• Forecasting modeling
• Induced ordered weighted averaging operators
• Load forecasting
• Modern interior point methods
• Optimization modeling
• Short term load forecasting
• Weighting coefficient

To improve forecasting accuracy and remedy the defects of single forecasting methods consisting of existing combinational forecasting methods that the weighting coefficients at different forecasted points are regarded as constant, a new optimal combinational method for short-term load forecasting based on induced ordered weighted averaging operator (IOWA) is proposed. In allusion to the fact that the forecasted results are different by the same forecasting method at different time, the ordered weighting is applied to each single forecasting method according to its forecasting accuracy at different time to implement the complementation of their merits and demerits to reduce the dependence of forecasted result on a certain forecasting method and to improve the forecasting accuracy. According to the proposed forecasting method based on IOWA operator, an optimal forecasting model with corresponding weighting coefficients is built and the process and procedures of solving the proposed model by modern interior point method are given. Practical application results show that the proposed method can effectively improve the accuracy by combinational forecasting, and the computation time is shortened.

• 出版日期2011-10
• 单位广西大学