Analysis and prediction of inter-city traffic mode choice behavior based on disaggregate methods

作者：Wu Linlin^*; Wang Yang; Ge Huimin

来源：Advances in Information Sciences and Service Sciences, 2012, 4(10): 408-415.

DOI：10.4156/AISS.vol4.issue10.48

• Behavior prediction
• Dependent variables
• Disaggregate method
• Elastic ranges
• Influencing factor
• Inspection methods
• Mode choice
• Multinomial Logit
• Parameter estimation method
• Passenger traffic
• Transport services
• Transportation mode
• Utility maximizations

This paper sets up MNL (Multinomial Logit) model of traffic mode choice behavior analysis using disaggregate methods. According to the principle of utility maximization, integrates passenger attributes, travel attributes and transport service attributes are integrated as the dependent variables of traffic mode choice. It studies the inspection methods and parameter estimation methods of this model, filters out the main factors that affect passenger traffic mode choices, and analyzes the elastic range of different factors to traffic mode choices. This paper quantitatively reveals the relationship between the influencing factors and transportation mode choices. Finally, the disaggregate methods of MNL model is studied and a method to predict traffic mode choice behavior is provided in case some influencing factors change.

• 出版日期2012