ASSESSMENT OF THE EFFECTS OF LAND USE SCENARIOS ON WATERSHED SURFACE RUNOFF USING HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING

作者：Aghakhani M; Nasrabadi T^*; Vafaeinejad A

来源：Applied Ecology and Environmental Research, 2018, 16(3): 2369-2389.

DOI：10.15666/aeer/1603_23692389

• hydrological simulation
• land use change
• management scenario
• model calibration
• sensitivity analysis
• SWAT

To manage watersheds, simulations of hydrological phenomena are very important. This paper investigates hydrological modelling of Talecian basin in Iran, and studies the effects of land use scenarios on the model runoff using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). For this purpose, hydro-meteorological data, soil map, land use maps, and digital elevation model of the area were prepared and used for model parameters' sensitivity analysis, model calibration, and validation. Sensitivity analysis was performed using SUFI-2 algorithm. Model performance was evaluated by using time series visual comparison plots and statistical indicators of Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) and the coefficient of determination (R-2). It was shown that the model has high potential to predict monthly runoff Then, the effects of land use changes on surface runoff in the basin were studied. For this purpose, practicable land use options in the watershed such as agroforestry, afforestation, expansion of agricultural land, and agriculture on terrace were considered. Hence, various management scenarios resulted from combinations of land use activities. They were applied to the calibrated model, and their effects on surface runoff were studied. The results show that management scenarios may have significant effects on runoff control.

• 出版日期2018