Modeling urban expansion scenarios by coupling cellular automata model and system dynamic model in Beijing, China

作者：He Chunyang^*; Okada Norio; Zhang Qiaofeng; Shi Peijun; Zhang Jingshui

来源：Applied Geography, 2006, 26(3-4): 323-345.

DOI：10.1016/j.apgeog.2006.09.006

• urban expansion
• cellular automata
• system dynamic
• Beijing

Spatially explicit urban expansion models that can trace urban development in the past and predict the expansion scenarios in the future are indispensable for examining urban planning policies. This paper demonstrates a new urban expansion scenario (UES) model by coupling one "bottom-up" cellular automata (CA)-based model and one "top-down" system dynamics (SD)-based model. By implementing the UES model in Beijing, the urban evolution from 1991 to 2004 was simulated and the UESs from 2004 to 2020 were predicted. The results suggest that a dilemma of urban expansion versus limited water resource and environment deterioration exists. Dealing with such a dilemma remains a challenge for the local government.

• 出版日期2006-10
• 单位北京师范大学; 防灾科技学院