摘要

Based on the results of an investigation of the Qingcaosha Reservoir located in the Yangtze River Estuary, including the reservoir general situation, structure of the dam, the river regime, the observation system and the operation program, the sources of risk to the reservoir in the tidal estuary are elucidated: 1) dam safety emergencies including super-standard storms, cold waves, earth-quakes and river regime change; 2) water contamination emergencies affecting upstream water quality, such as intensive salt water intrusion, water quality pollution accidents, and emergencies on movable sources that produce pollution, such as ships; and 3) water supply security emergencies including malfunction of equipment. In addition, the study indicates that a dam breakage emergency near the Yangtze River will reduce the guaranteed rate of water supply, while a breakage near the island will result in land flood inundation. The results of calculations of depth and velocity at the mouth of a dam break, made by a 2D hydrodynamic model, also indicate that some reaction time would be available to close the mouth while the break is still relatively small, while failure to close the mouth would cause heavy losses. Finally, an emergency preparedness plan (EPP) is presented, including organization system, operation procedure, start-up and end conditions, treatment plans, responsibility of every department and members and support countermeasures.