Assessment of the risk of a bluetongue outbreak in Europe caused by Culicoides midges introduced through intracontinental transport and trade networks

作者：Napp S^*; Garcia Bocanegra I; Pages N; Allepuz A; Alba A; Casal J

来源：Medical and Veterinary Entomology, 2013, 27(1): 19-28.

DOI：10.1111/j.1365-2915.2012.01016.x

• bluetongue
• BTV-8
• Culicoides
• stochastic models
• transport and trade networks

The importation of infected hosts and the arrival of windborne infected Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) were considered unlikely mechanisms for bluetongue virus (BTV) incursion into a BTV-free area during the recent BTV serotype 8 (BTV-8) epidemic in northern Europe. Therefore, alternative mechanisms need to be considered. Air, sea and land transport networks continue to expand, and an important consequence of this is vector-borne pathogen importation. One important aspect of bluetongue (BT) epidemiology not yet addressed is the potential movement of infected Culicoides via transport and trade networks. Therefore, a risk assessment model was constructed to assess the probability of a BTV outbreak as a consequence of the introduction of Culicoides via these networks. The model was applied to calculate the risk for a BTV-8 epidemic in Spain in 2007 caused by the introduction of Culicoides from affected northern European countries. The mean weighted annual risk for an outbreak caused by transportation of a single vector from an affected northern European country varied from 1.8 x 107 to 3.0 x 1013, with the highest risks associated with Culicoides imported from Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and France. For this mechanism to pose a significant risk to BTV-free countries, a large number of vectors would have to be transported.

• 出版日期2013-3