科研之友
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摘要
Land-use process is a nonlinear dynamic change, which concerns many related factors and interrelations ecologically, geographically, economically and socially. For a clear explanation of the mechanism of land change, a feasible dynamic model is designed on the basis of the land-use situation in Daqing area, where is particularly characterized by an expansion of the local petroleum industry and a decrease and degeneration of natural and agricultural ecosystem. To model this land-use process, we introduced an aggregated multivariate regression model which approached the topic much simpler and mathematically straightforward for a zero-dimensional space. Tylor series was used in the model to express the change of each land type in every time step, all the variables impacting the land-use change were integrated as dominate driving forces which reflect the comprehensive influence of Daqing's economic environment. The modeling is aimed at studying the land-use change under its particular environment and its causal economic development, therefore the model analysis focused on the dynamics process driven by the specialized economic structure and activities which serves as driving forces in change of land uses. Thereby this dynamic model can also be used as an example for prediction, adjustment and control of the land change trend in planning theoretically.
