Development and Application of a Forest Fire Danger Rating System in South Korea

作者：Won Myoung Soo; Lee Si Young^*; Lee Myung Bo; Ohga Shoji

来源：Journal of the Faculty of Agriculture, Kyushu University, 2010, 55(2): 221-229.

DOI：10.5109/18833

Most of fires were human-caused fires in Korea, but meteorological factors are also big contributors to fire behaviors and its spread. Thus, meteorological factors as well as social factors were considered in the fire danger rating systems. This study aims to develop a Korean Forest Fire Danger Rating System (KFFDRS) to support forest fire prevention efforts in South Korea. The KFFDRS consists of three, 10-scale indices: daily weather index (DWI), fuel model index (FMI), and topography model index (TMI). DWI represents the meteorological characteristics, such as effective humidity, temperature and wind speed, and is adapted to local conditions through the use of one of eight logistic regression models. Among the weather variables, the effective humidity significantly (p<0.01) affected the probability of forest fire occurrence in the overall regions. Maximum temperature was also a significant indicator (p<0.01) in the Gangwon, Gyeonggi, Gyeongbuk, and Jeonbuk regions. However, mean wind speed was a significant indicator (p<0.05) only in the Gyeongbuk region, indicating that is had no significant effect on the probability of occurrence, except in one region. The results of predicting estimation showed that the probability of randomly selected fires ranges from 0.740 to 0.822, which represent a relatively high accuracy of the developed model. Both FMI and TMI were derived by analysing the forest types and ignition points of 126 forest fires from 1997 through 2001. These findings would be necessary for the policy makers in South Korea for the prevention of forest fires.

• 出版日期2010-10