Potential impact of climate change on schistosomiasis transmission in China

作者：Zhou, Xiao-Nong^*; Yang, Guo-Jing; Yang, Kun; Wang, Xian-Hong; Hong, Qing-Biao; Sun, Le-Ping; Malone, John B.; Kristensen, Thomas K.; Bergquist, N. Robert; Utzinger, Juerg

来源：The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 2008, 78(2): 188-194.

DOI：10.4269/ajtmh.2008.78.188

• JIANGSU PROVINCE
• ONCOMELANIA-HUPENSIS
• AFRICAN HIGHLANDS
• HUMAN HEALTH
• MALARIA
• JAPONICUM
• FUTURE
• VULNERABILITY
• TEMPERATURE
• RESURGENCE

Appraisal of the present and future impact of climate change and climate variability on the transmission of infectious diseases is a complex but pressing public health issue. We developed a biology-driven model to assess the potential impact of rising temperature on the transmission of schistosomiasis in China. We found a temperature threshold of 15.4 degrees C for development of Schistosoma japonicum within the intermediate host snail (i.e., Oncomelania hupensis), and a temperature of 5.8 degrees C at which half the snail sample investigated was in hibernation. Historical data suggest that the occurrence of O. hupensis is restricted to areas where the mean January temperature is above 0 degrees C. The combination of these temperature thresholds, together with our own predicted temperature increases in China of 0.9 degrees C in 2030 and 1.6 degrees C in 2050 facilitated predictive risk mapping. We forecast an expansion of schistosomiasis transmission into currently non-endemic areas in the north, with an additional risk area of 783,883 km(2) by 2050, translating to 8.1% of the surface area of China. Our results call for rigorous monitoring and surveillance of schistosomiasis in a future warmer China.

• 出版日期2008-2
• 单位中国疾病预防控制中心; 中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所; 江苏省血吸虫病防治研究所