科研之友
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摘要
The grey system theory has its manifestation in several areas, such as evaluation, prediction, decision-making, game theory, and grey programming. Prediction is the most significant component of the grey theory. However, conventional grey models, such as GM(1,N), have certain drawbacks that restrict their wide applications in practical cases. To overcome the shortcomings of this model, a new grey prediction model is established based on the trends of driving factors in this study. This novel model makes three improvements. First, the properties of a multiple transformation are analyzed, and the reasonability of the multiple transformation in the GM(1,N) model is demonstrated. Second, an original grey model, OGM(1,1), having an optimized background value is proposed to predict the trends of driving factors. Finally, the novel prediction model is established by combing with the trends of driving factors and optimizing the adjustment coefficient. Later, CO2 emissions are simulated and predicted to verify, the efficacy of the proposed model the results demonstrate that the new model yields more accurate forecasting results than the other three benchmark models.
