科研之友
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摘要
In this study, predictors for regional disastrous rainfall events over Sichuan Basin and a conceptual model for assessing their associated hazard risk levels are developed using 104 daily rain gauge observations during the 43-year period of 1961-2013. An analysis of 636 regional disastrous rainfall events reveals that their daily mean, daily maximum, area coverage, and duration could be adopted as critical hazard predictors in a conceptual model for assessing their associated risk levels. Such a conceptual model is then constructed after performing some statistical analyses through normal distribution function, interval displacement processing, correlation coefficient and weighting as well as Euclidean distance functional calculations. Since this model has obvious resolvability to grading the regional disastrous rainfall events and since it is highly consistent with the number of heavy rainstorms recorded over Sichuan Basin, it has a great potential to be applied to operational heavy rainfall forecasts and the associated hazard risk assessments in the future.
