A logical characterization of coherence for imprecise probabilities

作者：Fedel Martina; Hosni Hykel^*; Montagna Franco

来源：International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 2011, 52(8): 1147-1170.

DOI：10.1016/j.ijar.2011.06.004

• Subjective probability
• Probabilistic logic
• Coherence
• Betting framework
• Imprecise probability
• Many-valued logic

Whilst supported by compelling arguments, the representation of uncertainty by means of (subjective) probability does not enjoy a unanimous consensus. A substantial part of the relevant criticisms point to its alleged inadequacy for representing ignorance as opposed to uncertainty. The purpose of this paper is to show how a strong justification for taking belief as probability, namely the Dutch Book argument, can be extended naturally so as to provide a logical characterization of coherence for imprecise probability, a framework which is widely believed to accommodate some fundamental features of reasoning under ignorance. The appropriate logic for our purposes is an algebraizable logic whose equivalent algebraic semantics is a variety of MV-algebras with an additional internal unary operation representing upper probability (these algebras will be called UMV-algebras).

• 出版日期2011-11