A neglected dimension of good forecasting judgment: The questions we choose also matter

作者：Merkle Edgar C; Steyvers Mark; Mellers Barbara; Tetlock Philip E

来源：International Journal of Forecasting, 2017, 33(4): 817-832.

DOI：10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.04.002

• Forecast evaluation
• Brier score
• Question selection
• Forecast nonresponse

Forecasters are typically evaluated via proper scoring rules such as the Brier score. These scoring rules use only the reported forecasts for assessment, neglecting related variables such as the specific questions that a person chose to forecast. In this paper, we study whether information related to question selection influences our estimates of forecaster ability. In other words, do good and bad forecasters tend to select questions in different ways? If so, can we capitalize on these selections when estimating forecaster ability? We address these questions by extending a recently-developed psychometric model of forecasts to include question selection data. We compare the extended psychometric model to a simpler model, studying its unidimensionality assumption and highlighting the unique information that it can provide. We find that the model can make use of the fact that good forecasters tend to select more questions than bad forecasters, and we conclude that question selection data can be beneficial above and beyond reported forecasts. As a side benefit, the resulting model can potentially provide unique incentives for forecaster participation.

• 出版日期2017-12