Day-ahead electricity prices forecasting by a modified CGSA technique and hybrid WT in LSSVM based scheme

作者：Shayeghi H^*; Ghasemi A

来源：Energy Conversion and Management, 2013, 74: 482-491.

DOI：10.1016/j.enconman.2013.07.013

• Day-ahead price forecasting
• Power markets
• CGSA algorithm
• Least squares support vector machine
• Wavelet
• Mutual information

At the present time, day-ahead electricity market is closely associated with other commodity markets such as fuel market and emission market. Under such an environment, day-ahead electricity price forecasting has become necessary for power producers and consumers in the current deregulated electricity markets. Seeking for more accurate price forecasting techniques, this paper proposes a new combination of a Feature Selection (FS) technique based mutual information (MI) technique and Wavelet Transform (WT) in this study. Moreover, in this paper a new modified version of Gravitational Search Algorithm (GSA) optimization based chaos theory, namely Chaotic Gravitational Search Algorithm (CGSA) is developed to find the optimal parameters of Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM) to predict electricity prices. The performance and price forecast accuracy of the proposed technique is assessed by means of real data from Iran's, Ontario's and Spain's price markets. The simulation results from numerical tables and figures in different cases show that the proposed technique increases electricity price market forecasting accuracy than the other classical and heretical methods in the scientific researches.

• 出版日期2013-10