A Factorial-based Dynamic Analysis Method for Reservoir Operation Under Fuzzy-stochastic Uncertainties

作者：Fu, D. Z.; Li, Y. P.^*; Huang, G. H.

来源：Water Resources Management, 2013, 27(13): 4591-4610.

DOI：10.1007/s11269-013-0429-6

• Factorial analysis
• Fuzzy Markov chain
• Reservoir operation management
• Stochastic dynamic programming
• Vertex analysis
• Uncertainty

In this study, a factorial-based fuzzy-stochastic dynamic programming (FFS-DP) method is developed for tackling multiple uncertainties including fuzziness, randomness and their interaction in reservoir operation management (ROM). FFS-DP is framed on the integration of stochastic dynamic programming, fuzzy-Markov chain, vertex analysis and factorial analysis techniques. It can not only deal with the conventional optimization problem for reflecting dynamic and uncertain features in ROM, but also obtain detailed effects of uncertain parameters and their interactions on the system performance. The developed method is applied to a case study of a reservoir operation system, where the local authority is in charge of allocating relative scant water to the downstream municipality. The results obtained can help the local authority identify desired water release policies under uncertain system conditions. Besides, the results simultaneously indicate that significant factors and their interactions can be identified in ROM. Moreover, the results can be further analyzed for generating optimal parameter inputs to obtain maximized system benefits.

• 出版日期2013-10
• 单位华北电力大学（保定）; 华北电力大学