An interval fixed-mix stochastic programming method for greenhouse gas mitigation in energy systems under uncertainty

作者：Xie Y L; Li Y P^*; Huang G H; Li Y F

来源：Energy, 2010, 35(12): 4627-4644.

DOI：10.1016/j.energy.2010.09.045

• Energy systems
• Environment
• Fixed-mix
• Planning
• Stochastic programming
• GHG mitigation
• Interval analysis
• Uncertainty

In this study, an interval fixed-mix stochastic programming (IFSP) model is developed for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction management under uncertainties. In the IFSP model, methods of interval-parameter programming (IPP) and fixed-mix stochastic programming (FSP) are introduced into an integer programming framework, such that the developed model can tackle uncertainties described in terms of interval values and probability distributions over a multi-stage context. Moreover, it can reflect dynamic decisions for facility-capacity expansion during the planning horizon. The developed model is applied to a case of planning GHG-emission mitigation, demonstrating that IFSP is applicable to reflecting complexities of multi-uncertainty, dynamic and interactive energy management systems, and capable of addressing the problem of GHG-emission reduction. A number of scenarios corresponding to different GHG-emission mitigation levels are examined; the results suggest that reasonable solutions have been generated. They can be used for generating plans for energy resource/electricity allocation and capacity expansion and help decision makers identify desired GHG mitigation policies under various economic costs and environmental requirements.

• 出版日期2010-12
• 单位华北电力大学